Scheduled for October 6, the African Union’s ultimatum evaporated high above Nouakchott’s grey sky like a winter rain in the desert.  

By Adama Wade, Casablanca

One by one, the efforts that were supposed to take on global proportions, shrank from the grand fury of hurricanes to become mild tropical depressions. No doubt, the military institution which had deposed president Sidi Ould Abdallahi on the morning of August 6 got comfy in the armchair of power, giving the impression that it hoped to become a permanent fixture by way of a pretty standard approach: a national conference which would give birth to official presidential elections. For the time being, the main culprit in this Greek tragedy is General Abdelaziz. Did he take over the government in order to keep it for himself as suggest the writings of the anti-coup Front National made up of members of parliament and public figures from all walks of life? So far, his answer is, if nothing else, unsettling: “I haven’t decided anything as yet,” declared Abdelaziz in a recent interview with the press. Meanwhile, the new director of Mauritanian Television, was kicked out the door by a former director of Mauritanian Radio who is more at ease with the subtleties of those currently in power. Similar adjustments occurred among top officials of the BASEP, the presidential guard, and also within the Ministry of Defence.

A deal that would have the military promoted to the rank of security council to have a say in some key issues and clearly delineated democratic boundaries.  Though he gives his word that this coup will not permanently impact Mauritania’s democracy, Nouakchott’s new man in charge has suggested that, “it’s up to the Mauritanian people to decide whether or not the military may run for office during the next elections.” He hurriedly goes on to add, however, that, “if a military official chooses to run for office, he must first resign.” On this point as well, the General has been deafeningly silent with regards to his intentions, as he should know better than anyone else that resignations are by no means the most appreciated of military actions. One thing, at least, is certain – neither the president of the army’s High Council currently in office nor his entourage appears to be in favour of President Sidi Ould Cheikh Abdallahi’s return to power as he is accused of “blocking Mauritania’s democratic institutions”. This point of view, which has proven divisive within the establishment, has the support of many in political circles close to the historical opposition. Thus, the head of the opposition, Ahmed Daddah, who had been against the Ould Taya regime since 1992, was one of the first public figures to give his blessing to what the Generals now call a “rectification”. According to those against the first Mauritanian president’s half-brother, in taking this position, he will not be among those negotiating a peace agreement.

Against the Afghanistanisation of the Sahel

With a face that embodies wisdom, Messaoud Ould Boukheir, president of the National Assembly, refused until now to recognise the new government. The leader of the APP was ready to support a version of peace that was essentially, a “no win, no loss” solution. In short, this measure would support the return of the dethroned president, hold scheduled elections and provide the military with some guarantees. Another solution which, though similar, would, according to some, block Ould Boukheir or make public opinion lean in favour of Ely Ould Mohamed Vall, was presented by senators as a third option that would preclude both the generals and president Sidi Ould Cheikh Abdallah. As rumour would have it, Paris, one of the main axes of Mauritanian diplomacy, is alleged to have sided with General Ghazouani – the regime’s second in command – with the military promoted to the rank of security council to have a say in some key issues and clearly delineated democratic boundaries. This theory, which will be approved by the future national conference, will have to be negotiated without the White House’s go-ahead. Quite involved in the fight against “the Afghanistanisation of the Sahel”, Mauritania’s recent developments represent the first step towards the creation of the Great Middle East. The Mauritanian army is perhaps racing against time with the hope that a democrat will be in the White House in November. Until then, the African Union, which defends this singular democratic context, as Sweden would have done, does not confound Mauritania with the Comoros. The geopolitical stability of the North African region depends on it.